Cats look to end season on a high
THE Black Cats will be looking to end the season on a high against Arsenal, but they will have to re-write the recent history books if they are to do so.
They have lost the last six league games against the Gunners and the last time they beat them at the Stadium of Light was back in 2000.
The key aspect in this game is that it looks like it will be a goal-fest. Only one of the last 10 meetings between the two sides has seen less than 3 goals and Arsenal have scored at least 3 goals in seven of the last eight games between the two.
It therefore won't surprise you that I'm going to tip up a high scoring game. Back over 2 goals at 8/11 with Boylesports and also buy (bet higher) total goals at 2.7 with Sporting Index. The crowd will be in for a treat, but 'm not sure if they'll go home with the result they wanted.
In terms of the rest of the Premier League, the best betting opportunity on the final Sunday is to cash in on the potential goal rush. Over the 15 years of the Premiership, the last round of games averages nearly three goals per match (2.98) when the league average for a game is 2.60.
It is therefore unsurprising that the month of May also leads the way in the monthly breakdown as well, averaging 2.81 goals per game (no other month averages above 2.68).
Interestingly, the trend is even stronger when that final game of the season involves two teams with 'nothing to play for' like the Sunderland v Arsenal game.
The Tottenham v Liverpool and Middlesbrough v Man City games both also look like prime opportunities to trade over 2.5 goals, so back them with both Boylesports and Sporting Index.
Games between teams with nothing to play for on the last day of the season average 3.14 goals/game - compared to 2.83 for those games involving teams that need a result. In fact, 63 per cent of last day dead rubbers have featured at least three goals as opposed to 52 per cent for matches with something at stake.
If the home team is lower in the table – as is the case in all three of our selected games – the goals/game tally is even higher at 3.54 with 72 per cent having +2.5 and nearly half (49 per cent, 19/39) featuring at least four goals.
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Weather for Hartlepool
Monday 28 May 2012
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