How many points Boro need to stay in the Championship based on previous seasons

Middlesbrough fans still worried over relegation should wonder no more about what it will take to stay up - as we can tell them the magic points total needed to stay in the Championship.

Friday, 13th December 2019, 12:21 pm
It's been a difficult start for new Middlesbrough boss Jonathan Woodgate.

Despite winning 1-0 at home to Charlton on Saturday, Jonathan Woodgate’s side are still only four points clear of the drop-zone.

But we have crunched the numbers to find out the average lowest points total needed to survive in the second tier in the last five seasons:

18/19: 44 points - Millwall finished 21st (44), four points clear of third-bottom Rotherham

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In 2018-19, 44 points was enough to stay up, with Millwall surviving ahead of Rotherham, whose survival luck ran out as they were relegated straight back to the third tier.

17/18: 43 points, Bolton Wanderers finished 21st (43), two points clear of third-bottom Barnsley.

Bolton survived on 43 points - and sent Barnsley down - after a 3-2 final day win at home to Nottingham Forest.

16/17: 51 points - Nottingham Forest finished 21st (51), above 22nd-placed Blackburn on goal difference.

The team that just stayed up was decided by goal difference, as Forest’s final-day victory over Norwich meant Blackburn’s win at Brentford was worthless.

15/16: 49 points - Rotherham finished 21st (49), nine points clear of third-bottom Charlton.

Rotherham survived comfortably in 2015-16 - but only after a stunning run of six wins and five draws in their last 13 league games.

14/15: 46 points - Rotherham finished 21st (46), five points clear of third-bottom Millwall.

The Millers sealed their safety when Jordan Bowery equalised in their penultimate game of the season against Norwich at the same time as Millwall were blowing a 3-1 lead over Derby.

So how many points will Boro need?

In the last five Championship seasons, the average points total for teams who finished 21st was 47.

But the average minimum points required to survive was just 43 points.

So that means Boro, with 21 points from their 21 league games so far, are on course to survive - and quite comfortably.

Even last season’s disappointing slide out of the promotion race saw them pick up 38 points from their final 26 league games.