Durham Ranks 8th Nationally for Deliberate Fires Despite Low Casualty Rates

The study by Safety Group UK ranks the average number of daily arson incidents across UK regions, placing Durham in the top 10 for arson frequency while noting its consistently low casualty and fatality rates.

Key Findings

• Durham ranks #8 nationally with 20.62 deliberate fires per day
• Since 2010, the region has recorded just 8 fatalities and 224 casualties from arson incidents – among the lowest totals for any high-incident region
• Durham has reported 27,620 secondary arson incidents (including grass, bin, and outdoor blazes) since 2010
• The region maintains very low fatality and casualty rates from deliberate fires compared to other regions with similar arson volumes

Low-Severity Despite High Volume

The report highlights Durham's unusual pattern of high arson frequency paired with low human impact.

From 2010 to early 2025, Durham reported just 8 fatalities from deliberate fires, a fraction of the numbers seen in regions with comparable arson volumes. Even more notably, fatalities were non-existent in several years during this period, and never exceeded 4 in any single year.

Between 2022 and early 2025, Durham recorded 36 casualties and 4 fatalities from arson attacks. While low in national comparison, this includes all the fire-related deaths in the post-pandemic period, concentrated in 2022/23. Both 2023/24 and 2024/25 have recorded zero deaths from deliberate fires.

Consistent Safety Record

The data reveals Durham's consistent safety performance despite facing regular arson incidents:

• Casualties from deliberate fires peaked in 2014/15 at just 25, with most years reporting under 20
• Fatalities were split evenly between pre-pandemic (4) and post-pandemic (4) periods, showing stability in safety outcomes
• Annual casualties from arson have remained below 40 throughout the study period

Diverse Arson Patterns

Despite the excellent safety record, Durham continues to face challenges with deliberate fire-setting across various categories:

• 27,620 secondary arson incidents
• 3,459 deliberate road vehicle fires
• 1,250 arson attacks on other buildings
• 823 deliberate dwelling fires

This positions Durham as an active but low-severity region for arson incidents.

Recent Annual Arson Volumes

• 2022/23: 3,887 deliberate fires
• 2023/24: 2,588 deliberate fires
• 2024/25*: 3,157 deliberate fires
• Average: ~3,275 arson incidents per year

Dramatic Seasonal Variations

Durham demonstrates some of the most pronounced seasonal fluctuations in arson activity of any UK region:

• In 2021/22, arson incidents dropped 42.7% from the first half (2,281) to second half of the year (1,306) – one of the steepest drops recorded nationally
• In 2022/23, this pattern rebounded with a 28.2% increase, from 1,511 (first half) to 1,937 (second half)

The data shows Durham is highly sensitive to seasonal patterns, likely driven by changes in outdoor activity or weather conditions that affect opportunities for deliberate fire-setting.

National Context

While ranking 8th nationally for deliberate fire volume with 20.62 arson incidents per day, Durham maintains some of the lowest harm outcomes in the country.