Bouncebackability: Hartlepool United's chances of EFL return revealed

Hartlepool will need to rekindle the spirit of their 2020-21 heroics if they are to make a swift return to the EFL after being relegated but they will have just a 13.5 per cent chance of doing so according to latest research.

Skylab is a first-of-its-kind sports technology firm, offering tailored, market-leading performance analysis services across football, athletics, tennis, boxing, motorsport and more.

Following the conclusion to the 2022-23 campaign, Skylab has researched teams in their first year of a new division over the last two decades to see what the trends suggest ahead of next season – and in Hartlepool’s case, what their chances are of bouncing straight back from non-league.

Newly promoted and relegated teams are typically targeted in pre-season predictions as those who may struggle to beat the drop and bounce back immediately, with Skylab analysing data from the National League up to the Premier League.

Results show that the frequency of an immediate promotion reduces the further you go down the football pyramid with only 13.5 per cent of teams relegated from League Two to the National League making a return at the first time of asking.

The last of those teams to do so was Grimsby Town who, following relegation from League Two in 2020-21, earned promotion via the play-offs in 2022 where they would go on to secure an 11th placed finish this season.

The two-up-two-down nature of National League and League Two does, perhaps, skew the stats whilst also demonstrating the importance of securing promotion back to the Football League.

For teams relegated from the Premier League, only 28.5% have achieved promotion at the first time of asking, combining both automatic and play-off promotion with 46% finishing outside an automatic and play-off spot. There have been two back-to-back relegations in the previous 20 seasons.

In contrast, the league that offers the best outlook for promoted teams are those entering League Two from the National League.

No team in the past 20 years have been relegated immediately following promotion while 17% have achieved back-to-back promotions through either the automatic places or the play-offs.

For more information on Skylab visit their website HERE!