Column: Why are Hartlepool United among the favourites for the National League title according to the bookmakers' odds?

Whether you’re a betting person or not, the bookmakers’ odds provide a unique and interesting insight into how different clubs are perceived.

So when you see Hartlepool United priced at 9/1 to win the National League title, with only big-spending Stockport and Notts County (both 5/1) available at shorter odds with Sky Bet, you want to delve into why that is.

Everyone knows the odds are far from a crystal ball indicator as to how the season will unfold.

Going into the 2019-20 season, AFC Fylde and Hartlepool’s Tuesday night opponents Chesterfield were the favourites for the title. Come the end of the season, Fylde were relegated and Chesterfield finished just outside the drop zone in 20th.

Conversely, last season’s relegation favourites Boreham Wood made the play-offs and rank outsiders Barrow won the league.

The National League is impossible to predict and the current circumstances surrounding the new season make it even more difficult.

But the odds pose an interesting to debate as to why one club is deemed ‘more likely’ to win the league than another.

Of course, they are rigged in a way that almost guarantees the bookies make money, but probability remains a decisive factor.

Over the past seven months, Pools have endured major cuts, are operating on a significantly reduced budget and are propped up by volunteers behind the scenes. Yet the bookmakers still have what is effectively a shell of a professional football club tipped to challenge for promotion.

Various components combine to make a successful football club but it’s what happens on the pitch that ultimately defines that success.

In Dave Challinor,Pools have one of the most proven and respected managers at National League level.

He’s put together a competitive looking squad which he’ll demand a lot from with the expectation on them to be capable of picking up results against whatever is put before them.

In fact, Pools have picked up more National League points in 2020 than any other side, the bookies will know this. And only two teams in currently in the National League (Woking and Barnet) have managed to beat Challinor’s Hartlepool ahead of Tuesday night’s match at Chesterfield.

Pools have struggled over the last seven months without football but so has every other club in the division. When you factor everything into account, it’s no surprise that Hartlepool are viewed as contenders – it’s now up to the players and management team to put that promise into practice.

“You always want to be up there challenging and competing and the players we’ve brought in, especially with the budget restraints are absolutely at the club for the right reasons and want a platform to perform,” Challinor told The Mail when discussing his side’s odds for promotion.

“I’ve got confidence in the players we’ve brought in and the ones we already had to go again and show what they can do and recapture that form they had towards the end of last season.

"We’re confident but I’m realistic and everyone knows how tough the National League is at the best of times, but this coming season is going to have a lot more challenges that will make it an awful lot tougher for everyone.

"Usually, the best team over the course of the season gets promoted but especially with the fixture schedule and circumstances, teams could get a lot of injuries so it’s even more unpredictable.”

You need a bit of good fortune with injuries and fixtures to be successful at this level, especially now that the season has been made four weeks shorter.

Something that is often the difference between a side flirting with the play-off places and being genuine title contenders is having a proven goalscorer playing regularly over the season.

Delving back into the bookmakers’ odds – not one Pools player is ranked among the top 22 favourites for the National League golden boot this season.

While Mason Bloomfield or David Parkhouse could still have storming seasons, there are still doubts over who could be a consistent source of goals in the side.

Arguably since Padraig Amond’s departure in 2017, Pools have been lacking a player who you would back to score 20 goals at National League level.

Challinor knows first hand how important a goalscorer is having made the play-offs in the fifth tier at Fylde in 2018 and 2019 with Danny Rowe bagging 24 and 27 league goals respectively.

Gime Toure was Pools’ top scorer last season with 13 from the wing. The season before that, Liam Noble led the scoring with 13, eight coming from the penalty spot. Prior to that, Michael Woods was the side’s top scorer with 11 from midfield.

In order for Pools to really challenge this season, they should have at least one player to pushing to break 20.

But at the moment, midfielder Gavan Holohan, with 10 goals in his last 18 starts, stands out as Pools’ biggest attacking threat.

It’s unlikely Pools are going to sign a proven National League goalscorer with the season already under way so it’s up to the players they have to step up to the plate.

If one player can’t score 20 on his own, then they’ll need three or four players around that 10 to 15 goal mark come the end of the season.

And Challinor is satisfied the players he has at his disposal are capable of achieving the club’s targets.

"We’re certainly happy with where we are currently and we’ve gone into the new season, yes with a different looking squad but looking to carry on the momentum we started to build and start the season strongly,” he continued.

"Hopefully, by the time we get our supporters back into the ground, they should have something to really cheer about and be optimistic that the club is heading in the right direction and competing.”

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