The key Kim Hellberg stat that Middlesbrough fans should be excited by
Middlesbrough news after new boss appointment, writes Peder Leufstedt Nyström.
It was officially announced on Monday that Middlesbrough’s new manager is 37-year-old Kim Hellberg, joining the club from Swedish top flight club Hammarby, after the release clause was triggered in his contract.
Before arriving at Teesside, he made a name for himself by leading newcomers IFK Värnamo to mid-table security in 2022 and following up the success with an extraordinary fifth place finish the following year.
Despite rumours linking him with a move to Sunderland, he chose to remain in the Swedish league, taking over Hammarby, where he has overseen successive seasons in second place. Hellberg has earned a reputation for developing younger talent while implementing a modern and attacking style of football, regardless of the resources at hand. But what do the numbers say and what should Boro fans expect from their incoming manager?
While Hammarby finished second in the league last year, underlying statistics indicate that they should have taken home the title. According to expected points, they were supposed to have earned 62 points throughout the season, which would have been the highest in the league, if it was not for a major upset.
They failed to secure the trophy because underdog Mjällby dramatically exceeded their statistical projections. Based on expected points, the eventual champions should have finished in eighth place, but by surpassing that forecast with 31 points, they unexpectedly claimed the title for the first time in the club’s history.
Hellberg has consistently demonstrated a preference for a possession-based football, and his side ranked first in the league last season, averaging a share of 61.9 percent. Over the past two campaigns, Hammarby have also finished first and second in successful passes. Even during his top-flight debut with newly promoted Värnamo in 2022, the team placed mid-table in the same metric before climbing to fourth in completed passes during their remarkable 2023 campaign.
His teams are not encouraged to rely on long distribution. Instead, Hellberg clearly prioritises progressing attacks through shorter combinations, and for four consecutive seasons his sides have finished last in the league in successful long passes per match. In addition to owning the ball, Hellberg places significant emphasis on recovering possession immediately after the ball is lost.
Last season, Hammarby ranked first in the league in terms of possession won in the final third, managing to do so 5.3 times per match. This tendency can also be found at Värnamo, as they ranked fourth in the league during his final season at the club, with an average of 6.3. Whether he can successfully implement his tactical approach in a new league remains uncertain, and he faces the added difficulty of arriving at Middlesbrough mid-season, with promotion ambitions but no pre-season to familiarise himself with the squad.
As Hellberg is joined by his assistant coach David Selini, whom he worked with at both Värnamo and Hammarby, the young manager does not appear to have any major tactical changes in mind. Expressen has reported that Malmö FF’s interim manager, Anes Mravac, who was also part of Hellberg’s staff during his time at Värnamo, will travel to Middlesbrough in December, following Malmö’s Europa League fixtures against Nottingham Forest and FC Porto, to join his backroom team.
Hellberg was introduced to the crowd at Riverside Stadium ahead of kick-off in the 2-4 defeat to Coventry, and he will oversee training during the week before making his debut in Saturday’s home fixture against Derby County.