Opta supercomputer rates Middlesbrough's promotion chances after vital Sheffield Wednesday win
How likely are Middlesbrough to achieve promotion following their win over Sheffield Wednesday?
Middlesbrough finally ended a six-game winless run by beating Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 in midweek.
It certainly wasn’t a vintage Boro performance, with the solitary goal coming from Morgan Whittaker in the 11th minute. From there, Kim Hellberg’s men once again passed up some considerable opportunities to see the game off, while the rock-bottom Owls - with just one Championship win this season - forged a couple of dangerous openings of their own.
Nevertheless, Boro remain within three points of the automatic promotion spots, with games against Watford at home and Wrexham away still to come. The Teessiders would have to leapfrog Southampton, Millwall and Ipswich Town to take second at this point, which looks incredibly unlikely. But how do their chances look in the eyes of stat gurus Opta?
Opta rate Middlesbrough’s promotion chances
- Coventry - 92.59 (100.00% automatic promotion probability)
- Ipswich - 83.58 (68.88% automatic promotion probability)
- Millwall - 82.54 (26.68% automatic promotion probability)
- Southampton - 79.25 (3.44% automatic promotion probability)
- Middlesbrough - 79.16 (1.00% automatic promotion probability)
- Hull - 72.76
- Wrexham - 72.32
- Derby - 68.86
- Norwich - 67.00
- Birmingham - 62.82
- Swansea - 62.77
- Bristol City - 61.77
- QPR - 60.19
- Sheff Utd - 59.95
- Preston - 59.04
- Watford - 58.89
- Stoke - 57.55
- West Bromwich - 54.92
- Blackburn - 53.71
- Portsmouth - 53.70
- Charlton - 52.36
- Oxford - 46.72
- Leicester - 44.23
- Sheff Wed - -1.19
As per Opta’s expected points (xPTS) metric, Boro are predicted to remain in fifth place come the end of the season, with a points total of 79. Hellberg’s side currently have 76 points on the board, meaning they’re tipped to win one and lose one of their remaining two matches, most likely beating Watford at home before losing at Wrexham on the final day.
Boro’s automatic promotion probability sits at just 1% after their recent slide in form, compared to 68.88% for Ipswich, 26.68% for Millwall and 3.44% for Southampton. The task is made that much harder by the fact that Ipswich have a game in hand on those around them, with two of their three remaining fixtures against bottom-half sides (West Brom away, QPR at home), either side of a trip to direct rivals Southampton.
Your next Boro read: Matt Targett fitness update after Sheff Wed sub - "Had some issues"