The revealing statistics behind Middlesbrough's goalscoring woes and the areas Neil Warnock must address
The Teessiders ended up as the Championship’s lowest scorers last season after registering just 48 goals in 46 league games.
Even when they finished just outside the play-offs 12 months earlier, only four teams netted less goals than Tony Pulis’ side – a statistic which ultimately cost the club another crack at promotion.
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Hide AdYet it’s fair to say Boro haven’t really been an attacking team for some time – even when they won promotion from the Championship under Aitor Karanka, the Teessiders were the lowest scorers in the top six.
So is there a negative philosophy at the club? A shortage of creativity? Or simply a lack of composure in front of goal?
We take a closer look at the stats.
Poor finishing
It may not be to everyone's liking, but expected goals is often a good place to start when looking at a team’s attacking struggles.
And for Boro, the stats, courtesy of football database Wyscout, make slightly better reading when it comes to creating chances.
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Hide AdAs expected, Boro’s xG figure for the 2019/20 season (55.77) is far from the best in the division, yet it is over seven goals higher than their actual goals tally.
Overall, eight teams, including Derby, Bristol City and Blackburn, all recorded lower xG scores than the Teessiders last campaign, yet clearly those teams showed more cutting edge in the final third.
When you think about it, it’s easy to see why Boro’s actual goalscoring total is lower than their expected goals figue – especially when you look back at some of the gilt-edged chances that were missed.
Ashley Fletcher scored some vital goals last campaign but somehow managed to miss an open goal at Huddersfield. Meanwhile, Britt Assombalonga endured a difficult campaign with injuries but squandered some golden chances against Sheffield Wednesday and Derby.
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Hide AdThere are more examples but they are probably best forgotten.
Encouragingly, though, Boro’s expected goals figure improved slightly following Warnock’s appointment, from a season’s average of 1.21 goals per game to 1.52 goals per game for the final eight games of the season.
Yet clearly the strikers aren’t the only ones to blame in all of this.
A lack of creativity
As Warnock said a couple of weeks ago, it will be hard to find better forward options than Fletcher and Assombalonga in the transfer market – so there must be faults in other areas.
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Hide AdDespite a lack of natural wingers in the squad, Boro did manage to compensate for their shortage of width by deploying wing-backs last season, with the likes of Marvin Johnson, Djed Spence and Hayden Coulson providing energy on the flanks.
The aforementioned players were all encouraged to deliver crosses from wide areas, and Boro averaged a total of 14.21 crosses per match in the Championship last season.
That figure was the 13th highest in the division, and while some may think their deliveries were poor, Boro finished fifth when it came to crossing accuracy in the second tier.
But when looking at the team’s passing and distribution statistics, there were a few revealing figures.
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Hide AdIn terms of passes into the final third, Boro were ranked rock-bottom in the Championship, averaging just 44.39 per game.
It highlights a clear lack of creativity and confidence when approaching goal, with players choosing to move the ball sideways or backwards rather than attempting a killer pass.
Simerly, Boro didn’t fare too well when it came to progressive passes per game, with only Huddersfield Town registering fewer in the Championship last term.
Perhaps, somewhat surprisingly, Boro's aforementioned passing statistics didn’t really change under Warnock, even if the number of long passes did increase slightly.
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Hide AdFinding the right balance
Yet for all the numbers and data, there is also an element of finding the right balance or partnership.
Assombalonga and Fletcher have often spoken about their good relationship on and off the pitch, yet, as a pair, they only performed in flashes last term.
In July’s 2-0 win at Millwall, the duo made a significant impact and linked up excellently to earn Boro a crucial three points, yet there were times when they appeared to get in each other’s way.
It didn’t help, of course, that Assombalonga missed a large part of the campaign with an ankle injury, and perhaps we will see the best of him this season.
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Hide AdThat is assuming the striker stays at the Riverside, which is no guarantee given that he only has one year left on his contract and cost the club £15million three years ago.
At Championship level, though, few have a better strike rate than the 27-year-old, who has scored 70 goals in 190 second-tier appearances.
Yet, as the stats show, whoever starts up front for Boro will clearly need more service.
The Teessiders are still looking to replace playmaker Patrick Roberts who was on loan at the club from Manchester City last season, while the lack of goals from midfield has also been concerning in recent years.
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Hide AdWarnock will certainly be looking to bolster his attacking options before the Championship season commences on September 12.
He will also be making his own conclusions about the club’s goalscoring woes - a conundrum which managers before him haven’t been able to crack.