Which National League promotion and play-off contender has the hardest run-in? Hartlepool United, Sutton, Torquay, Notts County, Stockport Wrexham, Chesterfield, Bromley and Halifax Town fixtures analysed and ranked
By Dominic Scurr
Published 26th Apr 2021, 12:01 GMT
Updated 26th Apr 2021, 12:38 GMT
It’s the business end of the 2020-21 National League season and the promotion race is hotting up.
It’s tight at the top and even tighter at the bottom of the play-off picture with several sides fighting for a top seven place.
Torquay United’s last minute equaliser against Notts County sent them ahead of Hartlepool United to the top of the table.
The top nine sides in the National League have between six and nine games remaining this season so we’ve analysed each side’s run-in to assess who has the toughest remaining fixtures from a statistical standpoint.
We’ve calculated every opponents’ points per game totals to work out the average total for each side’s remaining fixtures.
Points per game totals are weighted to whether the opposing side is at home or away. For example, Hartlepool’s PPG at home is 2.17 while away it is 1.56 so match difficulty will be weighted accordingly.
Scroll down and click through the pages to see each side’s run-in ranked from easiest to hardest…
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The top nine sides in the National League have between six and nine games remaining this season so we’ve analysed each side’s run-in to assess who has the toughest remaining fixtures from a statistical standpoint.
. National League promotion run-in comparison
The top nine National League sides have had their remaining fixtures ranked in order of difficulty using the average points per game totals of their upcoming opponents. Photo: HUFC
Third placed Sutton United statistically have the easiest run in based on their remaining fixtures and could go top with their games in hand. Two matches against bottom of the table Barnet as well as home games against Weymouth and Woking make for a fairly comfortable run-in on paper, although they still have to travel to Notts County and host Hartlepool United. Photo: Jacques Feeney
The Shaymen sit fifth in the National League table going into the final month of the campaign but they have a difficult final run-in to look forward to. Home games against Stockport County and Chesterfield stand out as they also face several strong mid-table sides with Woking the only side they'll play with a PPG total of less than one. Photo: Linnea Rheborg
Bromley shot into the top seven following Saturday's 2-1 victory at Halifax Town to make it four wins on the bounce. The Ravens sit sixth and could really shake things up in their final seven games as they face five of the top nine sides. An incredibly tough run on paper sees Bromley face Chesterfield, Hartlepool, Torquay and Notts County (twice). Photo: James Chance