An in-depth look at Keith Curle's first game in charge of Hartlepool United against Gillingham - what the data reveals

Curle’s era at Hartlepool kicked off with a somewhat bland afternoon against Neil Harris’ side, where they would end the day at the foot of the League Two table.

But while Curle was quick to praise the honesty of his players in their display, what can be said for their actual performance?

Pools, for what felt like the first time this season, finished a game strongly and in the ascendancy but were again unable to make a breakthrough which has been the story of their campaign.

But is there enough for Curle to be encouraged by moving forward?

Here, at The Mail, we crunch some of the numbers regarding Curle’s first game in charge against Gillingham and Paul Hartley’s final game in charge, a 2-0 defeat to Sutton United.

When it comes to possession, as Pools have found to their detriment, it doesn’t always matter how much you see of the ball.

Last week against Sutton, Hartlepool, surprisingly, registered their highest possession stats of the season [60 per cent per FBref] and yet, arguably, couldn’t have seemed less likely to win a game.

Against Gillingham under Curle, possession was fairly even but Pools seemed much more likely to take something from the game.

That can be acknowledged further by simply looking at the expected goals (xG) ratios of each game.

For Hartley’s final game in charge, Pools registered an xG of 0.28 against the U’s’ tally of 1.82, whereas against Gillingham, Curle’s men had an xG of 1.83 with the Gills at 0.17 which is the lowest xG against Pools have faced all season by some considerable margin - albeit against the most toothless attack in League Two with just two goals in 10 games.

In contrast, Pools’ xG of 1.83 was their third highest of the season, behind 1.86 in the 1-1 draw with Crewe Alexandra and 2.38 in the 2-1 defeat at Northampton Town as per data experts Wyscout.

Pools registered 15 attempts at goals against Gillingham, their joint-most of the season, while facing just four, their lowest so far.

Of those 15 attempts for Curle’s side, nine took place inside the penalty area, Wes McDonald’s fine curling effort cleared from the line being the particular highlight, whereas against Sutton, only five of Pools’ eight attempts came from inside the 18-yard area.

Yet defensively is where we see another significant difference, with Pools facing just three attempts from inside the box against Gillingham compared to all 10 of Sutton’s attempts coming from within that area of the field.

But it’s not just attempts at goal from inside the penalty area worth noting, it’s also useful to consider the amount of touches both Pools, and their opponents, are getting inside the box.

Pools saw the ball 28 times inside the Gillingham box, an increase of eight touches on Hartley’s side at Sutton.

In contrast, Gillingham were afforded just 13 touches in the area compared to Sutton’s 49 touches as per Who Scored. It goes without saying, the more Curle’s team can cut out the number of touches an opposition are getting in the box, the less chance they have of conceding.

Of those touches in the area, striker Josh Umerah registered just two against Sutton in 90 minutes compared to five in 55 minutes against Gillingham.

While that is a number that simply needs to increase for Curle, if Pools are to find a solution to their problems, it is, at least, a start in the right direction.

But it’s not just standard metrics such as efforts at goal and xG which can tell us more about the initial differences in Hartley and Curle’s’ Hartlepool.

A simple eye examination would suggest Curle’s team were much more direct in their approach than what we have seen from Hartley’s nine league games in charge and the stats support that judgement.

Pools completed just 204 of their 306 attempted passes against Gillingham under Curle, a ratio of 66.67 per cent, as per Wyscout, which is their lowest completion rate of the season and almost 200 passes fewer than Hartley’s side at Sutton.

But 74 of those attempted passes were determined as ‘long’ which, coincidentally, is their highest tally in that category this season with the 24.18 per cent long pass ratio being much higher than the nearest figure of 19.06 per cent in the goalless draw with Tranmere Rovers under Hartley.

Curle watched his side attempt 60 passes to the final third, which is the most attempted in five league games stretching back to the 3-1 reverse to Bradford City.

But when it comes to progressive passes as a whole, Curle’s side are already at the top of that list for the season with 96 attempts made.

And although the percentage of those being accurate at just 63.54 per cent is quite low in comparison to the success rate from Hartley’s stats, the fact that Curle’s side are looking for those progressive advances more often is something to be encouraged by.

To balance things out, Curle’s side attempted just 36 regressive passes, which is the lowest amount of the season and directly half of the 72 made by Hartley’s side at Sutton, again emphasising his message to the players of getting the ball forward.

Against Gillingham, Pools completed 13 of 21 crosses, a 61.9 per cent ratio, again their highest success of the season so far which suggests Curle will be keen for his players to get the ball into the box more regularly than we have seen under Hartley, with the defeat at Northampton the only time we have seen Pools complete more crosses [24] albeit it a much less significant conversion rate of 37.5 per cent.

When it comes to the quality of Hartlepool’s pressing against teams, Curle saw his side register a passes per defensive action [PPDA] score of 7.45 which is the second lowest of the season after the 6.83 recorded under Hartley during the 4-0 defeat at Walsall on the opening day.

A more succinct way of putting it means Curle’s side allowed 7.45 passes before any defensive action was made in Gillingham’s defensive third of the field.

While these units do not determine the effectiveness of the press, it does signal the intensity which was more encouraging than we have seen in recent weeks, with the figure having been as high as 18.96 under Hartley in the 4-2 defeat at Leyton Orient.

So what does all this mean?

As with most stats, they can be sculpted to suit specific needs, particularly if the stats which matter, in this case the goals scored and points gained numbers, continue to fall short.

Curle took heart from the mentality of his players in his first game in charge, and when he looks back and analyses the data there is further room for some encouragement, as well as room for improvement.

But what really matters is Pools being able to get points on the board whether that is through advances in the game-by-game data or, at this stage, by any means necessary.