Middlesbrough's promotion chances rated ahead of Championship final day showdown
Middlesbrough are still in with a chance of automatic promotion ahead of the Championship final day.
The race for automatic promotion has gone down to the final day, and Middlesbrough are still in with a chance of sealing a Premier League return without having to run the play-off gauntlet.
That seemed a very unlikely prospect a mere 10 days ago, when Boro threw away a lead late on to draw 2-2 at table rivals Ipswich Town, extending their Championship winless run to seven matches. But since then, Kim Hellberg’s side have beaten Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 and hammered Watford 5-1 at the Riverside Stadium, while Ipswich and Millwall above them have let results slip.
The three sides are now separated by just two points heading into the final day, but what chance do they have of automatic promotion according to Opta’s predictions model?
Middlesbrough’s automatic promotion chances ahead of Championship final day
- Coventry - 93.72
- Ipswich - 83.05
- Millwall - 82.02
- Middlesbrough - 80.26
- Southampton - 78.57
- Wrexham - 71.45
- Hull - 71.45
- Derby - 70.67
- Norwich - 66.26
- Birmingham - 64.15
- Swansea - 62.75
- Preston - 61.17
- Bristol City - 60.73
- QPR - 58.72
- Sheff Utd - 58.05
- Watford - 58.03
- Stoke - 55.98
- Portsmouth - 55.54
- West Bromwich - 54.69
- Charlton - 53.98
- Blackburn - 53.67
- Oxford - 47.74
- Leicester - 44.06
- Sheff Wed - -1.94
Opta’s Expected Points (xPTS) model is tipping Boro to end the campaign on 80 points, which means they would most likely draw their extremely challenging final-day trip to sixth-place Wrexham, who are predicted to hold the final play-off spot on goal difference over Hull City - the Tigers sitting just a single point behind. Boro’s implied probability of automatic promotion has increased slightly in light of recent results, but still sits at just 2.16%, compared to 23.38% for Millwall and 74.46% for Ipswich.
Key Championship final day fixtures
- Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
- Ipswich Town vs QPR
- Millwall vs Oxford United
Boro have the hardest task of the three automatic promotion-chasers by far. Wrexham need to win to ensure they pip Hull to sixth place, and the Welsh side only saw a two-game winning streak ended by champions Coventry on Sunday. At home, they’ve lost just six of 22 Championship games all season. Meanwhile, Ipswich host a QPR side sitting 14th and with nothing to play for, with the Londoners winning just six of 22 away games. Millwall are also at home to already-relegated Oxford United, who have taken just 18 points and four wins on the road this term. All Championship fixtures this Saturday kick off at 12:30pm.
Your next Middlesbrough read: Hellberg sees opportunity in promotion race after Boro thrash Watford