How likely are Middlesbrough to achieve Premier League promotion after their winless streak extended to six games?

Middlesbrough’s automatic promotion hopes were left in flames on Saturday as they fell to a late 1-0 defeat at home to Portsmouth.

Just as they did in each of their five previous fixtures, Boro dominated proceedings and utterly outshot the opposition, but failed to find any sort of cutting edge to make the most of that supremacy. Instead, the Teessiders were suckerpunched by a 97th-minute Conor Chaplin goal from a corner, slipping to fourth in the Championship table in the process.

Boro trail Ipswich Town by three points and have played two games more, with their only ray of hope the fact that they face the Tractor Boys away next weekend.

But what has all this done to Boro’s chances in the Opta predicted Championship table?

Opta rate Middlesbrough’s promotion chances after Portsmouth defeat

Coventry - 92.32 xPTS
Ipswich - 84.63 xPTS
Millwall - 79.60 xPTS
Middlesbrough - 78.44 xPTS
Southampton - 77.56 xPTS
Hull - 73.77 xPTS
Wrexham - 70.64 xPTS
Derby - 68.82 xPTS
Norwich - 63.86 xPTS
Bristol City - 63.01 xPTS
QPR - 62.81 xPTS
Swansea - 62.02 xPTS
Preston - 61.75 xPTS
Watford - 61.69 xPTS
Stoke - 60.06 xPTS
Sheff Utd - 59.88 xPTS
Birmingham - 59.88 xPTS
Charlton - 54.23 xPTS
Blackburn - 52.33 xPTS
West Bromwich - 51.43 xPTS
Portsmouth - 50.75 xPTS
Oxford - 48.99 xPTS
Leicester - 46.07 xPTS
Sheff Wed - -0.48 xPTS

According to Opta’s expected points (xPTS) model, Boro will stay in fourth come the end of the season, and could even pick up just six more points across their last four fixtures.

That would mean Boro face Southampton in the Championship playoff semi-final, and although many Saints players have experience of earning promotion, the memory of their 4-0 defeat at the Riverside Stadium in January will still burn in their minds.

Opta forecast Millwall and Hull to make up the final two playoff spots, and either would make for a formidable opponent for Boro in the Wembley final. Opta’s prediction model also gives Kim Hellberg’s men a 4.66% chance of securing automatic promotion, but a 94.60% chance of getting over the line and confirming their place in the playoffs.

Your next Boro read: Kim Hellberg blasts Boro players after 'lazy' Portsmouth defeat